Publications

The development of oil and gas assets is a complex and high-risk endeavor that requires a holistic understanding of technical, economic, and infrastructure availability. In Indonesia, the Upstream Oil and Gas Regulatory Task Force (SKK Migas) aims to develop 133 upstream oil and gas projects by 2029, with more potential blocks going to be offered to the potential operators to reach the 2035 national production target. However, while the number of discoveries and projects for new blocks and assets continues to grow, moving these projects to the final investment decision (FID) stage presents substantial challenges due to the nature of the business. Moreover, regional expertise is crucial as the intersection of numerous local factors will play a pivotal role in ensuring the project’s success and sustainability. Therefore, this study proposes a macro-perspective and comprehensive approach to understand the project risks and opportunities by integrating key factors, from subsurface to surface parameters knowledge.

The study focuses on ten provinces with the largest hydrocarbon resources in Indonesia, leveraging various data primarily from Rystad Energy’s Cube Browser. A further in-depth case study will be conducted for the three key provinces – East Kalimantan, West Papua, and Maluku - which represent a range of basin classifications: East Kalimantan as a Mature Basin, West Papua as a Semi-Mature Basin, and Maluku as a Frontier Basin. To assess regional risks and feasibility, parameters examined include subsurface properties such as reservoir types, hydrocarbon resource distribution, CO2 content distribution, infrastructure availability such as pipelines and surface facilities, and economic considerations like development costs per barrel of oil equivalent (boe), breakeven prices, regional gas price and market demands. By coupling these parameters with insights and analyses, the study aims to comprehensively assist stakeholders in evaluating project risks, opportunities and the unique regional factors of Indonesia's oil and gas landscape.