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Decision Analysis to Determine Best Alternatives to Develop a New Discovery “R Field”

Proceedings Title : Proc. Indon. Petrol. Assoc., 46th Ann. Conv., 2022

In Indonesia, oil, gas, and coal are the largest main sources of energy. The oil and gas upstream industry has the considerable responsibility to supply such sources by the production of oil and gas. PERTAMINA, as the largest energy company in the country, has several upstream subsidiaries including PERTAMINA EP which is the company tasked with the sourcing of oil and gas. PERTAMINA EP in Zone 7 is short of gas supply for buyers in the area, not withstanding exploration activities in R field which in 2019 discovered proven potential gas layers and one potential oil layer. This discovery was expected to fulfill the energy demand in the area, however since discovery in 2019 there has been no development activity in the field and this has become an issue to be resolved. The objective of this paper is to determine the root cause of the undeveloped potential in R field and generate a decision analysis to determine the best alternative to be implemented in R field. Several methods were used to determine the root cause, generate alternatives, and define the solution. The research followed a six-step problem solving process. It started with the SWOT Analysis to define the business situational analysis and the Kepner-Tregoe Method to determine the root cause of the problem. It was then followed by Value Focused Thinking method to determine the desired goals. Brainstorming sessions to provide the alternatives were also conducted. The alternatives were then validated using reservoir dynamic simulation model and forecasted. The SMART Method and economical parameter comparison using PSC Model was applied to select the best solution. From brainstorming, 9 alternatives were generated, which after filtering by the SMART method resulted in 4 best alternatives. 1 do-nothing scenario, 2 oil layer development scenario, and 1 gas development scenario. From profitability parameter calculations using PSC model only 1 scenario met the definition for a profitable scenario: to develop the oil layer using only the existing well without additional drilling. It is this scenario that will be recommended to be implemented in R field. Instead of developing the discovered gas layer in this new field, the oil layer should be developed for better profitability and higher feasibility of implementation. This conclusion is a product of a comprehensive approach from subsurface considerations to surface facility study and economic considerations (profitability) which should have been conducted earlier at the end of exploration phase. R field which was initially identified as a gas discovery field is shown to bring higher profit for the company by developing the oil layer.

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